Global trade tremors and geopolitical volatility have put a big spotlight on Greater Victoria’s vulnerabilities. Dallas Gislason looks at our future through the SWOT lens of Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats to discover how we turn our strengths into strategies for success.
Greater Victoria is an amazing place to live, work and play for many residents. This proves itself in data: our population grew from roughly 300,000 in 1996 to nearly 400,000 by the 2021 census – a 33% increase over 25 years, outpacing Canada’s 28% growth during the same period. Undoubtedly, people love to live here, and many more aspire to.
That said, we face significant economic headwinds. The critical question isn’t if Greater Victoria is a great place to live, but if we can maintain this high quality of life long-term – a future where families and new workforce entrants can support themselves with good careers that compensate for the higher cost of living here.
Maintaining that status requires more than just investing in basic infrastructure or building more housing. We need a long, hard look in our “economic mirror” to examine our flaws and strengths. Only then can we craft a deliberate plan forward – one that builds on strengths and shores up weaknesses.
After looking in that proverbial mirror, I did a quick analysis of our region’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats and wrote this as a reflection of what I see today and in our future. But I want your contributions as well. At the end of this article, I’ve linked to a survey where you can chime in.
Greater Victoria’s Weaknesses
Let’s start with our weaknesses — you don’t have to go farther than your favourite social media platform to hear about them. Many people start complaining even before their first cup of coffee in the morning. So let’s do the easiest (and laziest) work first and list some of Greater Victoria’s negatives. Don’t worry; we’ll shift back to the positives ASAP!
- Rising costs and our limits in building for the future. Throughout 2024, the average single detached house price hit $1.29-million, a staggering 47% increase from $878,411 in 2019 (pre-pandemic). Today, the focus on affordability combined with the costs of maintaining local infrastructure and services, often leads local governments and decision makers to \annual reviews on cost cutting rather than on growing metropolitan region and building the infrastructure we need 20 years from now (like rail, water, expanded ports, diverting waste from landfill, etc.)
- Infrastructure deficit. Looking under the hood (or the pavement) across our region will reveal water and sewer pipes with a limited shelf life. Municipalities nationwide own about 61.7% of the country’s core public infrastructure but face an estimated deficit between $150-billion and $1-trillion due to chronic underinvestment. Greater Victoria is not immune.
- Too much dependence on government jobs. Since 2022, B.C.’s public sector jobs grew by a whopping 22%, while private sector growth lagged at a mere 0.5%. See a problem? In the Greater Victoria region, our wealth depends on public-sector jobs. Across the region, 31% of our ‘base incomes’ depend on public administration for their prosperity (in the Westshore, it’s even higher at 36%). Facing potential stagnation from tariffs and other headwinds, the provincial government will be reluctant to expand its workforce. Furthermore, the shift to remote work has reduced the number of downtown public servants supporting local retailers and services, creating a cascading economic impact.
- World-class manufacturers with no ports or rail. From Viking Air (De Havilland), Schneider Electric and Quester Tangent to Fawcett Mattress, FTS, Industrial Plankton and others, our region is rich with amazing companies that do business across Canada and abroad. However, the lack of market access limits our potential as a manufacturing hub. Unlike Vancouver, which boasts North America’s fourth busiest port, our region only has a ferry terminal and an airport, which increases costs while limiting connectivity.
- Agricultural land restrictions. I love the concept of protecting productive agricultural lands. (I grew up in a farming community in rural Saskatchewan.) But it’s time to face a hard reality: We will never solve food security issues with a focus on a few hundred small farms, that is, without offering them value-added and scaling opportunities. The challenge is that the Agricultural Land Commission (ALC) strongly restricts any of these facilities on farmlands, thus limiting farmers’ abilities to invest or collaborate on better ways of doing things. The result is expensive land with limited opportunities to increase profit margins.
- Innovative but we’re poor at scaling! I’ve interviewed and hosted focus groups with hundreds of entrepreneurs and business leaders in our region. One universal observation I’ve heard in those conversations is how creative, innovative and open-minded our culture is. It’s remarkable and a true force of optimism. However, like the rest of Canada, we’re not good at converting that into scaled enterprises. We tend to invest in something cool and game-changing and then sell it to a parent company, usually American. e.g., AbeBooks (Amazon), MediaCore (WorkDay), Redlin (Canon), Power Measurement (Schneider). The line of amazing local innovations now owned by foreign multinationals keeps growing.
- Parochialism and isolated decision-making. All the data point to the Greater Victoria Metropolitan Area as being one fluidly integrated economic system. But more than just “the economy” in terms of where people derive their income, pay property taxes and consume local services and buy household goods, many of the issues (and opportunities) facing us can best be addressed through visionary leadership and unrelenting collaboration. From providing housing and addressing homelessness to attracting essential healthcare workers and creating the next generation of jobs here, the list of items that require collaboration (both geographically across local government jurisdictions, as well as across public/private and third-sector realms) is LONG.
Threats to Greater Victoria’s Prosperity
Staying on theme with doing the easy work first, it only took me a few minutes to list a few of the top threats looming over us.
- Trump 2.0. From tariffs to the threat of annexation, the reality is that we are vulnerable to the random decisions of our largest trading partner. While this could impact the many exporters in Victoria who sell into the U.S., the estimated $69B impact on B.C.’s economy will be even more impactful. This has already led to a hiring freeze by our largest single employer — the BC Government. Provincial budget cuts will impact Victoria’s economy disproportionately due to our reliance on public sector spending.
- Demographics and service decline. Our aging demographics make things more difficult as the workforce struggles to keep up with rising costs of healthcare and other services that will be increasingly in demand as people age. Lack of access to family doctors and healthcare services will threaten our prosperity and may even lead to political backlash against any growth. (By the way, healthcare workers’ spouses also need jobs, so if we kill our dynamism, we limit our potential to solve this.)
- Technological disruption. Almost every conversation I have nowadays includes speculation about artificial intelligence (A.I.) and its potential. However, we still don’t fully know which occupations AI puts most at risk for disruption and job losses. So far, two occupations dominating the conversation are software engineers and coders (and white collar jobs in general). This puts Victoria at risk, but you’ll also find this bullet point under the opportunities section.
- Environmental pressures. We must admit that the new normal in B.C. means reckoning with climate change and its impacts, including droughts, heat domes, wildfires, and threats to our power grid once declining snowpacks and rainfalls leave our hydro dams half empty. Even though we’re less vulnerable to a major fire (we hope) in Greater Victoria, we do rely heavily on hydropower. In fact, Vancouver Island only produces one-third of its own electricity. And I haven’t even mentioned the Big One (earthquake risk) yet.
- Socio-economic pressures. Those of us who’ve lived here a while are seeing this more acutely. It’s simply a reality that wealth inequality, homelessness and substance dependency are the wicked problems that are the most difficult for us to solve. Everyone will offer their opinion on the solutions, though all are only partially correct. I’ll add social isolation and the loneliness epidemic to this list, too, since the risks increase within an aging population.
Image: Daily average time with friends is plummeting across ages
2023 research reveals troubling trends across age cohorts. We need to utilize community-level tools and approaches to bring neighbours together with neighbours.
Now, let’s put the “GREATER” into Greater Victoria by pursuing collaborative opportunities across sectors and geographies
Greater Victoria’s Strengths To Build On
Now, let’s change our tune. Get that bad stuff out of your head and think of all the positives Greater Victoria offers. (In many ways, we’re still the envy of many, so let’s remind ourselves of that!). My focus will be on economic strengths; otherwise, this list would simply be too long for an article (although I also wrote a lengthy list of surprising and/or hidden things to love about Greater Victoria: Check it out here!).
- Smart, educated people. As one of Canada’s most educated metropolitan areas, with excellent schools and a strong (in fact, disproportionate) ability to attract highly qualified individuals, we possess the human ingenuity needed to tackle diverse challenges and seize opportunities.
- Open and accepting culture. We value diversity and multiculturalism and what they bring to our metropolitan area, from addressing workforce gaps to new culinary and cultural experiences. And we value all types of diversity, too, which is an encouraging counterforce to some of the trending politics these days.
- Stability through major economic drivers (government, education, healthcare, tourism, military and defence). Though stability has made us somewhat complacent, it’s also a strength that means the economic hardships don’t cause as many deep cuts on and long-term impacts as they do in other regions.
- Tourism and hospitality. Our retail and culinary environment is incredibly rich because tourist dollars come into the region. We benefit from that in many ways, not just the diversified tax base. We’re also leading the global conversation on reducing the environmental impacts of the travel industry through the annual IMPACT conference.
- Urban structure. A renowned urbanist from the U.K. once told us that “Victoria has such good bones.” By that, he meant the structure of the urban form itself: beautiful old buildings and architecture downtown, emerging density that allows for more housing types, farmland and rural areas on the Peninsula and Westshore, space to grow — though limited — in Langford, Colwood and Sooke. Plus, we’re surrounded by water, beaches and nature on all sides — and all of this within a 30-kilometre radius.
- Proximity to major centres. Connectivity to both Seattle and Vancouver is a major asset for Greater Victoria. Then there’s our access to capital, business services, events and entertainment (Go Canucks!). The fact that we’re in the same timezone as California, which is still the global epicentre of technological innovation, means our tech ecosystem can easily serve that market.
- 10,000 Years of Embedded Wisdom. We must never forget that we live on First Nations’ lands. But more than the ceremonial territorial acknowledgements, this represents real opportunities for us to pursue an economy that is truly unique, values-aligned and special by collaborating with Indigenous partners. SIPP’s Indigenous Prosperity Centre is helping to make this more of a reality.
- Healthy population. Despite an older demographic, Greater Victoria residents of all ages value outdoor activities, contributing to longevity and healthy aging — a significant quality-of-life factor.
- Exceptional assets. We have too many assets to fully list here, but to name a few: three distinct and high-quality post-secondaries; the largest drydock on the west coast of the Americas; home to Canada’s Pacific Naval Fleet; a working harbour with an aerodrome; parks and green spaces galore (threaded by the Galloping Goose and Lochside Trails covering more than 80 kilometers); a beautiful and efficient international airport; 13 unique municipal jurisdictions; and nine First Nations.
- Energetic organizations working hard to create the future: Just a few of these organizations include VIATEC, Vancouver Island Life Sciences (VILS), the Association of BC Marine Industries (ABCMI), Destination Greater Victoria, CR-FAIR, the Victoria Foundation, five Chambers of Commerce and numerous non-profits, charities and foundations. The list also includes world-class institutes within our universities and colleges, such as Camosun Innovates, UVic Innovation Hub, Cascade Institute, Ocean Networks Canada and many more). Our region comes together to strive for excellence. Organizations like the South Island Prosperity Partnership (SIPP) are the icing on the cake, seeking to bring all the parties together to strive for a collaborative and coordinated approach to building regional prosperity.
Opportunities for the Future
Now, let’s put the “GREATER” into Greater Victoria by pursuing collaborative opportunities across sectors and geographies. Here are some ideas:
Innovation and productivity in traditional sectors. The next wave of the digital age will focus on improving productivity across government and traditional sectors. Sometimes we refer to these opportunity areas as GovTech, AgriTech, MedTech and OceanTech. This involves applying technology to solve specific problems within institutions and key sectors. SIPP is actively doing this with OceanTech through our COAST initiative. Which other sectors should follow?
Emerging sectors to nurture. Beyond improving existing industries, opportunities lie in newer fields. Beyond the opportunities mentioned above to improve government, enhance our ability to grow food, improve health outcomes through technologies, and use our position as an ocean city to grow the Blue Economy, there are also smaller but emerging sectors of opportunity. First is the Life Sciences & Health sector (A recent report revealed our region’s emerging strengths and the gaps we must work on to realize this sector’s potential). Next is the Circular Economy, which offers ways to recover resource value through reuse, repair and recycling. A local foundation is championing this through Project Zero and a business accelerator that wants to apply circular approaches. What emerging sectors am I missing? Use the link below to add your thoughts.
Future of work: upskilling and retooling the workforce. Every conversation I have about the future of jobs and work inevitably results in speculation about artificial intelligence (AI) and its threat to mostly white-collar jobs. However, what if we looked at the jobs under threat and proactively trained people in those vocations to use AI to their advantage? Could we address Canada’s declining productivity in the process? I think so!
Reduce economic leakage through business succession and transition. According to a 2023 CFIB report, over $2-trillion in assets will change hands in the coming decade as aging business owners seek to retire. This means selling their businesses. But there aren’t nearly enough buyers, which puts our access to local services at risk as businesses are faced with closing entirely or being bought up by chains or private equity groups. We need innovative new retail strategies for our mainstreets and business districts, including accelerating a range of approaches to ownership (such as employee ownership models, social enterprises, co-operatives or joint ventures).
Excessively expedite exports. Despite making up 90% of Canadian exporters, small businesses account for only 18% of the country’s total export value. Exporting provides a crucial pathway for small businesses to scale by expanding their market reach, driving down their unit costs and diversifying revenue. However, for SMEs at risk of being hit by declining sales in the U.S., we need to support them by shifting capacity to do business in non-U.S. markets. From tax policy to market research to aiding with qualified leads, there are a range of tools that could help.
Embrace makers and space to make stuff. As I wrote in Douglas magazine a few months ago, what gets made here matters. But the facilities and land to make stuff are pretty much non-existent. One approach that the City of Victoria is taking is through its emerging Industry Arts and Innovation District plan. Once approved, planners will start to align zoning to the plan, making it easier for more flexible uses to be built. Aside from this, it may be time for our region to explore an Industrial Land Reserve to ensure employment lands remain optimized and protected for decades.
Aim for where we want to be by the mid-21st century. I’m talking about putting our money where our mouth is. By 2050, what will be our region’s top five most significant needs across infrastructure, transportation, sustainability, workforce and economy? Who is bringing the region together — across geographies and sectors — to make this priority list? Is the Regional Growth Strategy (RGS) enough, or can we create a multifaceted, collaborative implementation plan on top of this high-level framework?
Your Thoughts: Building the Future, Together!
Now it’s your turn. What are Greater Victoria’s strengths and top opportunities for building the future we all want for ourselves, our children and our neighbours?
Follow this link to fill out our survey and shape the future of Greater Victoria.
